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VoteClimate: Liberal Democrats Most Winnable Seats

Liberal Democrats Most Winnable Seats

These are the seats where the Lib Dems have the best chance of winning, based on the least required swing in VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 34.6% | Conservative: 24.4% | Reform: 14.7% | Liberal Democrat: 12.6% | Green: 6.9%

[Last updated: 11 August 2024]

Constituency Expected Winner Lib Dems Votes Required
Bath Liberal Democrat 19,883 1st 19,883
Bicester and Woodstock Liberal Democrat 19,419 1st 19,419
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Liberal Democrat 13,736 1st 13,736
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Liberal Democrat 22,736 1st 22,736
Carshalton and Wallington Liberal Democrat 20,126 1st 20,126
Cheadle Liberal Democrat 23,681 1st 23,681
Chelmsford Liberal Democrat 20,214 1st 20,214
Cheltenham Liberal Democrat 25,076 1st 25,076
Chesham and Amersham Liberal Democrat 24,422 1st 24,422
Chichester Liberal Democrat 25,540 1st 25,540
Chippenham Liberal Democrat 22,552 1st 22,552
Didcot and Wantage Liberal Democrat 21,793 1st 21,793
Dorking and Horley Liberal Democrat 20,921 1st 20,921
Eastbourne Liberal Democrat 23,742 1st 23,742
Eastleigh Liberal Democrat 15,970 1st 15,970
Edinburgh West Liberal Democrat 26,645 1st 26,645
Ely and East Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat 17,127 1st 17,127
Epsom and Ewell Liberal Democrat 20,674 1st 20,674
Esher and Walton Liberal Democrat 28,315 1st 28,315
Frome and East Somerset Liberal Democrat 16,580 1st 16,580
Glastonbury and Somerton Liberal Democrat 20,364 1st 20,364
Guildford Liberal Democrat 22,937 1st 22,937
Harpenden and Berkhamsted Liberal Democrat 27,282 1st 27,282
Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberal Democrat 23,976 1st 23,976
Hazel Grove Liberal Democrat 17,328 1st 17,328
Henley and Thame Liberal Democrat 23,904 1st 23,904
Honiton and Sidmouth Liberal Democrat 23,007 1st 23,007
Horsham Liberal Democrat 21,632 1st 21,632
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire Liberal Democrat 18,159 1st 18,159
Kingston and Surbiton Liberal Democrat 25,870 1st 25,870
Lewes Liberal Democrat 26,895 1st 26,895
Maidenhead Liberal Democrat 21,895 1st 21,895
Melksham and Devizes Liberal Democrat 20,031 1st 20,031
Mid Dorset and North Poole Liberal Democrat 21,442 1st 21,442
Mid Dunbartonshire Liberal Democrat 22,349 1st 22,349
Mid Sussex Liberal Democrat 21,136 1st 21,136
Newbury Liberal Democrat 19,645 1st 19,645
Newton Abbot Liberal Democrat 15,201 1st 15,201
North Cornwall Liberal Democrat 24,094 1st 24,094
North Devon Liberal Democrat 21,820 1st 21,820
North East Fife Liberal Democrat 23,384 1st 23,384
North East Hampshire Liberal Democrat 21,178 1st 21,178
North Norfolk Liberal Democrat 19,488 1st 19,488
North Shropshire Liberal Democrat 26,214 1st 26,214
Orkney and Shetland Liberal Democrat 11,392 1st 11,392
Oxford West and Abingdon Liberal Democrat 23,414 1st 23,414
Richmond Park Liberal Democrat 28,528 1st 28,528
South Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat 25,704 1st 25,704
South Cotswolds Liberal Democrat 22,961 1st 22,961
South Devon Liberal Democrat 22,540 1st 22,540
St Albans Liberal Democrat 29,222 1st 29,222
St Ives Liberal Democrat 25,033 1st 25,033
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat 19,517 1st 19,517
Stratford-on-Avon Liberal Democrat 23,450 1st 23,450
Surrey Heath Liberal Democrat 21,387 1st 21,387
Sutton and Cheam Liberal Democrat 17,576 1st 17,576
Taunton and Wellington Liberal Democrat 24,331 1st 24,331
Tewkesbury Liberal Democrat 20,730 1st 20,730
Thornbury and Yate Liberal Democrat 20,815 1st 20,815
Tiverton and Minehead Liberal Democrat 18,326 1st 18,326
Torbay Liberal Democrat 18,937 1st 18,937
Tunbridge Wells Liberal Democrat 23,661 1st 23,661
Twickenham Liberal Democrat 30,185 1st 30,185
Wells and Mendip Hills Liberal Democrat 23,622 1st 23,622
West Dorset Liberal Democrat 26,999 1st 26,999
Westmorland and Lonsdale Liberal Democrat 31,061 1st 31,061
Wimbledon Liberal Democrat 24,790 1st 24,790
Winchester Liberal Democrat 29,939 1st 29,939
Witney Liberal Democrat 20,832 1st 20,832
Woking Liberal Democrat 24,019 1st 24,019
Wokingham Liberal Democrat 25,743 1st 25,743
Yeovil Liberal Democrat 23,765 1st 23,765
Godalming and Ash Conservative 23,293 2nd 22,402 891 1.18%
East Hampshire Conservative 18,509 2nd 17,234 1,275 1.80%
Farnham and Bordon Conservative 18,951 2nd 17,602 1,349 1.78%
North Dorset Conservative 18,208 2nd 16,619 1,589 2.19%
South Shropshire Conservative 17,628 2nd 16,004 1,624 2.12%
Romsey and Southampton North Conservative 19,893 2nd 17,702 2,191 3.05%
Exmouth and Exeter East Conservative 14,728 3rd 11,387 3,341 4.18%
North Cotswolds Conservative 17,426 2nd 14,069 3,357 4.59%
Burnley Labour 12,598 2nd 9,178 3,420 4.56%
Torridge and Tavistock Conservative 16,049 2nd 12,099 3,950 5.29%
South West Hertfordshire Conservative 16,458 2nd 12,002 4,456 6.21%
Aylesbury Labour 15,081 3rd 10,440 4,641 5.86%
Hamble Valley Conservative 19,671 2nd 14,869 4,802 6.04%
Salisbury Conservative 17,110 3rd 11,825 5,285 7.36%
Spelthorne Conservative 14,038 3rd 8,710 5,328 7.22%
Hinckley and Bosworth Conservative 17,032 2nd 11,624 5,408 7.08%
Sevenoaks Conservative 18,328 2nd 12,888 5,440 7.38%
Beaconsfield Conservative 18,494 2nd 13,039 5,455 7.50%
Mid Buckinghamshire Conservative 20,150 2nd 14,278 5,872 7.76%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Labour 12,709 4th 6,470 6,239 8.43%
Bridgwater Conservative 12,281 4th 5,781 6,500 9.08%
West Worcestershire Conservative 19,783 2nd 13,236 6,547 8.26%
Sussex Weald Conservative 16,758 2nd 9,916 6,842 9.39%
Isle of Wight East Conservative 10,427 5th 3,550 6,877 12.31%
Windsor Conservative 16,483 3rd 9,539 6,944 9.47%
Gordon and Buchan Conservative 14,418 3rd 7,307 7,111 10.22%
South East Cornwall Labour 15,670 4th 8,284 7,386 10.17%
Christchurch Conservative 16,941 2nd 9,486 7,455 10.49%
Runnymede and Weybridge Conservative 18,442 2nd 10,815 7,627 10.36%
Birmingham Yardley Labour 11,275 4th 3,634 7,641 10.44%
South Dorset Labour 15,659 4th 8,017 7,642 10.07%
Maidstone and Malling Conservative 14,146 4th 6,375 7,771 10.16%
Bermondsey and Old Southwark Labour 16,857 2nd 9,070 7,787 11.21%
Fareham and Waterlooville Conservative 17,561 3rd 9,533 8,028 10.43%
Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Labour 12,798 4th 4,711 8,087 10.51%
Watford Labour 15,708 3rd 7,577 8,131 11.12%
Sheffield Hallam Labour 23,875 2nd 15,686 8,189 11.23%
Leicester East Conservative 14,526 4th 6,329 8,197 10.71%
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber SNP 15,582 4th 7,359 8,223 11.46%
New Forest West Conservative 16,412 3rd 8,186 8,226 11.98%
Solihull West and Shirley Conservative 16,284 3rd 7,916 8,368 11.65%
South West Wiltshire Conservative 15,617 4th 7,205 8,412 11.51%
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Labour 14,976 4th 6,497 8,479 11.05%
East Grinstead and Uckfield Conservative 19,319 2nd 10,839 8,480 11.25%
Central Devon Conservative 16,831 3rd 8,232 8,599 11.41%
East Wiltshire Conservative 16,849 3rd 8,204 8,645 11.66%
Poole Labour 14,168 4th 5,507 8,661 11.94%
East Surrey Conservative 17,502 3rd 8,833 8,669 11.83%
Suffolk Coastal Labour 15,672 4th 6,947 8,725 11.71%
Kenilworth and Southam Conservative 19,395 3rd 10,464 8,931 11.92%
Cardiff East Labour 15,833 2nd 6,736 9,097 12.48%
Bromsgrove Conservative 16,533 4th 7,391 9,142 11.96%
South West Norfolk Labour 11,847 5th 2,618 9,229 12.35%
Hereford and South Herefordshire Conservative 14,871 4th 5,325 9,546 13.22%
North West Norfolk Conservative 16,097 4th 6,492 9,605 12.91%
South Suffolk Conservative 16,082 4th 6,424 9,658 12.94%
Havant Conservative 12,986 4th 3,275 9,711 13.43%
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Labour 10,655 6th 942 9,713 12.49%
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich Conservative 15,144 5th 5,407 9,737 13.33%
Kingston upon Hull East Labour 13,047 3rd 3,252 9,795 13.86%
Bracknell Labour 14,783 4th 4,768 10,015 13.98%
Bournemouth West Labour 14,365 4th 4,311 10,054 14.31%
North West Hampshire Conservative 17,770 4th 7,626 10,144 12.90%
Rochdale Labour 13,027 5th 2,816 10,211 14.08%
New Forest East Conservative 17,412 4th 7,198 10,214 14.46%
Swansea West Labour 14,761 3rd 4,367 10,394 14.00%
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Conservative 15,678 4th 5,081 10,597 13.79%
Sittingbourne and Sheppey Labour 11,919 6th 1,321 10,598 13.40%
Basildon and Billericay Conservative 12,905 4th 2,292 10,613 13.81%
South Leicestershire Conservative 18,264 4th 7,621 10,643 13.56%
Faversham and Mid Kent Conservative 14,816 5th 4,158 10,658 14.34%
Oldham East and Saddleworth Labour 14,091 5th 3,386 10,705 14.57%
Broadland and Fakenham Conservative 16,322 4th 5,526 10,796 14.05%
Preston Labour 14,006 5th 3,195 10,811 13.97%
Cities of London and Westminster Labour 15,302 3rd 4,335 10,967 14.95%
Bradford West Labour 11,724 7th 756 10,968 14.08%
Daventry Conservative 17,872 4th 6,755 11,117 13.75%
Bethnal Green and Stepney Labour 15,896 4th 4,777 11,119 13.65%
St Austell and Newquay Labour 15,958 4th 4,805 11,153 14.66%
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey SNP 14,961 4th 3,785 11,176 14.47%
Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour 13,593 6th 2,400 11,193 14.48%
Dumfries and Galloway Conservative 13,527 5th 2,092 11,435 14.56%
West Suffolk Conservative 15,814 4th 4,284 11,530 14.95%
The Wrekin Conservative 16,320 4th 4,757 11,563 14.65%
Gloucester Labour 16,472 4th 4,759 11,713 14.74%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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