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VoteClimate: Liberal Democrats Most Winnable Seats

Liberal Democrats Most Winnable Seats

These are the seats where the Lib Dems have the best chance of winning, based on the least required swing in VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 45% | Conservative: 22% | Reform: 13% | Liberal Democrat: 8.5% | Green: 6%

[Last updated: 24 June 2024]

Constituency Expected Winner Lib Dems Votes Required
Bath Liberal Democrat 31,400 1st 31,400
Bicester and Woodstock Liberal Democrat 18,667 1st 18,667
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Liberal Democrat 18,362 1st 18,362
Carshalton and Wallington Liberal Democrat 25,254 1st 25,254
Cheadle Liberal Democrat 28,584 1st 28,584
Chelmsford Liberal Democrat 23,300 1st 23,300
Cheltenham Liberal Democrat 31,571 1st 31,571
Chesham and Amersham Liberal Democrat 24,114 1st 24,114
Chichester Liberal Democrat 19,164 1st 19,164
Chippenham Liberal Democrat 23,789 1st 23,789
Didcot and Wantage Liberal Democrat 21,751 1st 21,751
Dorking and Horley Liberal Democrat 20,542 1st 20,542
Eastbourne Liberal Democrat 25,690 1st 25,690
Eastleigh Liberal Democrat 20,880 1st 20,880
Edinburgh West Liberal Democrat 23,733 1st 23,733
Ely and East Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat 16,529 1st 16,529
Esher and Walton Liberal Democrat 28,457 1st 28,457
Farnham and Bordon Liberal Democrat 19,423 1st 19,423
Frome and East Somerset Liberal Democrat 16,095 1st 16,095
Glastonbury and Somerton Liberal Democrat 25,683 1st 25,683
Godalming and Ash Liberal Democrat 20,919 1st 20,919
Guildford Liberal Democrat 26,764 1st 26,764
Harpenden and Berkhamsted Liberal Democrat 23,315 1st 23,315
Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberal Democrat 21,981 1st 21,981
Hazel Grove Liberal Democrat 19,631 1st 19,631
Henley and Thame Liberal Democrat 22,635 1st 22,635
Honiton and Sidmouth Liberal Democrat 25,395 1st 25,395
Horsham Liberal Democrat 19,737 1st 19,737
Kingston and Surbiton Liberal Democrat 32,549 1st 32,549
Lewes Liberal Democrat 25,243 1st 25,243
Maidenhead Liberal Democrat 20,403 1st 20,403
Mid Dorset and North Poole Liberal Democrat 24,020 1st 24,020
Mid Dunbartonshire Liberal Democrat 22,175 1st 22,175
Mid Sussex Liberal Democrat 19,202 1st 19,202
Newbury Liberal Democrat 19,028 1st 19,028
Newton Abbot Liberal Democrat 15,697 1st 15,697
North Cornwall Liberal Democrat 22,657 1st 22,657
North Devon Liberal Democrat 22,293 1st 22,293
North East Fife Liberal Democrat 24,073 1st 24,073
North Norfolk Liberal Democrat 21,368 1st 21,368
North Shropshire Liberal Democrat 23,147 1st 23,147
Orkney and Shetland Liberal Democrat 10,875 1st 10,875
Oxford West and Abingdon Liberal Democrat 36,625 1st 36,625
Richmond Park Liberal Democrat 38,275 1st 38,275
Romsey and Southampton North Liberal Democrat 20,005 1st 20,005
South Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat 25,831 1st 25,831
South Cotswolds Liberal Democrat 20,069 1st 20,069
South Devon Liberal Democrat 18,103 1st 18,103
St Albans Liberal Democrat 30,064 1st 30,064
St Ives Liberal Democrat 26,347 1st 26,347
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat 17,517 1st 17,517
Stratford-on-Avon Liberal Democrat 18,190 1st 18,190
Surrey Heath Liberal Democrat 21,198 1st 21,198
Sutton and Cheam Liberal Democrat 19,299 1st 19,299
Taunton and Wellington Liberal Democrat 26,200 1st 26,200
Thornbury and Yate Liberal Democrat 23,428 1st 23,428
Tiverton and Minehead Liberal Democrat 17,841 1st 17,841
Torbay Liberal Democrat 18,716 1st 18,716
Tunbridge Wells Liberal Democrat 20,502 1st 20,502
Twickenham Liberal Democrat 37,947 1st 37,947
Wells and Mendip Hills Liberal Democrat 24,537 1st 24,537
West Dorset Liberal Democrat 26,712 1st 26,712
Westmorland and Lonsdale Liberal Democrat 27,831 1st 27,831
Wimbledon Liberal Democrat 29,592 1st 29,592
Winchester Liberal Democrat 29,340 1st 29,340
Woking Liberal Democrat 22,948 1st 22,948
Wokingham Liberal Democrat 25,530 1st 25,530
Yeovil Liberal Democrat 22,414 1st 22,414
Witney Conservative 16,995 2nd 16,886 109 0.14%
Epsom and Ewell Conservative 20,009 2nd 19,792 217 0.28%
Melksham and Devizes Conservative 18,137 2nd 17,166 971 1.32%
Sheffield Hallam Labour 23,209 2nd 22,174 1,035 1.42%
North East Hampshire Conservative 19,352 2nd 18,188 1,164 1.51%
Tewkesbury Conservative 16,213 2nd 14,868 1,345 1.83%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Conservative 16,473 2nd 14,746 1,727 2.36%
East Hampshire Conservative 16,822 2nd 15,051 1,771 2.51%
Runnymede and Weybridge Conservative 18,750 2nd 16,665 2,085 2.83%
East Surrey Conservative 16,454 2nd 12,841 3,613 4.93%
Hamble Valley Conservative 19,393 2nd 15,257 4,136 5.20%
Exmouth and Exeter East Conservative 15,349 3rd 11,084 4,265 5.33%
West Worcestershire Conservative 19,906 2nd 14,677 5,229 6.60%
Sussex Weald Conservative 18,225 2nd 12,718 5,507 7.56%
Salisbury Conservative 18,317 2nd 12,420 5,897 8.21%
South Shropshire Conservative 19,823 2nd 13,862 5,961 7.77%
Sevenoaks Conservative 19,120 2nd 13,126 5,994 8.13%
Maidstone and Malling Conservative 13,823 4th 7,805 6,018 7.87%
Fareham and Waterlooville Conservative 18,168 2nd 11,978 6,190 8.04%
North Cotswolds Conservative 20,120 2nd 13,849 6,271 8.57%
East Grinstead and Uckfield Conservative 19,941 2nd 13,548 6,393 8.48%
Torridge and Tavistock Conservative 17,293 4th 10,797 6,496 8.69%
Finchley and Golders Green Labour 18,003 3rd 10,716 7,287 9.40%
North West Hampshire Conservative 20,918 3rd 13,627 7,291 9.27%
Bermondsey and Old Southwark Labour 21,626 2nd 14,043 7,583 10.91%
Aylesbury Labour 17,092 3rd 9,195 7,897 9.97%
Christchurch Conservative 19,159 2nd 11,196 7,963 11.21%
North West Essex Conservative 19,918 3rd 11,831 8,087 10.15%
North Dorset Conservative 20,454 2nd 12,079 8,375 11.52%
Solihull West and Shirley Conservative 16,555 3rd 8,026 8,529 11.88%
Mid Buckinghamshire Conservative 21,768 2nd 13,165 8,603 11.38%
South West Hertfordshire Conservative 16,485 4th 7,548 8,937 12.46%
Beaconsfield Conservative 19,077 3rd 9,991 9,086 12.49%
Bridgwater Conservative 14,516 4th 5,320 9,196 12.85%
Hinckley and Bosworth Conservative 18,296 3rd 9,051 9,245 12.10%
Windsor Conservative 15,783 3rd 6,477 9,306 12.69%
South West Wiltshire Labour 14,814 4th 5,458 9,356 12.80%
Poole Labour 15,866 4th 6,458 9,408 12.97%
Ashfield Reform 12,071 5th 2,493 9,578 13.90%
Spelthorne Labour 16,448 4th 6,486 9,962 13.50%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Conservative 15,913 4th 5,802 10,111 13.66%
Orpington Conservative 15,171 4th 4,947 10,224 14.34%
Hereford and South Herefordshire Labour 15,986 4th 5,580 10,406 14.41%
Reigate Conservative 20,098 3rd 9,678 10,420 13.51%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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