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VoteClimate: Liberal Democrats Most Winnable Seats

Liberal Democrats Most Winnable Seats

These are the seats where the Lib Dems have the best chance of winning, based on the least required swing in VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%

[Last updated: September 2023]

Constituency Expected Winner Lib Dems Votes Required
Bath Liberal Democrat 26,812 1st 26,812
Carshalton and Wallington Liberal Democrat 19,233 1st 19,233
Cheadle Liberal Democrat 22,953 1st 22,953
Cheltenham Liberal Democrat 28,230 1st 28,230
Eastbourne Liberal Democrat 21,504 1st 21,504
Eastleigh Liberal Democrat 19,006 1st 19,006
Esher and Walton Liberal Democrat 23,614 1st 23,614
Godalming and Ash Liberal Democrat 18,654 1st 18,654
Guildford Liberal Democrat 21,407 1st 21,407
Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberal Democrat 19,514 1st 19,514
Hazel Grove Liberal Democrat 15,902 1st 15,902
Kingston and Surbiton Liberal Democrat 26,060 1st 26,060
Lewes Liberal Democrat 23,171 1st 23,171
Orkney and Shetland Liberal Democrat 8,354 1st 8,354
Oxford West and Abingdon Liberal Democrat 26,068 1st 26,068
Richmond Park Liberal Democrat 34,883 1st 34,883
South Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat 20,887 1st 20,887
St Albans Liberal Democrat 25,005 1st 25,005
St Ives Liberal Democrat 21,700 1st 21,700
Sutton and Cheam Liberal Democrat 16,513 1st 16,513
Taunton and Wellington Liberal Democrat 22,242 1st 22,242
Twickenham Liberal Democrat 33,269 1st 33,269
Westmorland and Lonsdale Liberal Democrat 20,872 1st 20,872
Wimbledon Liberal Democrat 21,281 1st 21,281
Winchester Liberal Democrat 24,901 1st 24,901
Woking Conservative 16,020 2nd 16,001 19 0.03%
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Conservative 16,369 2nd 16,278 91 0.13%
Didcot and Wantage Conservative 17,670 2nd 17,565 105 0.14%
Farnham and Bordon Conservative 19,211 2nd 18,736 475 0.68%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Conservative 15,293 2nd 14,789 504 0.70%
Wokingham Conservative 20,678 2nd 19,424 1,254 1.51%
Ely and East Cambridgeshire Conservative 16,959 2nd 15,608 1,351 1.97%
Witney Conservative 17,825 2nd 16,277 1,548 2.25%
West Dorset Conservative 20,947 2nd 19,160 1,787 2.30%
Henley and Thame Conservative 19,482 2nd 17,404 2,078 2.94%
Harpenden and Berkhamsted Conservative 18,141 3rd 15,749 2,392 3.08%
North East Fife SNP 18,851 2nd 16,371 2,480 3.59%
Chippenham Conservative 20,690 2nd 18,084 2,606 3.49%
Finchley and Golders Green Labour 19,498 2nd 16,789 2,709 3.48%
Thornbury and Yate Conservative 21,775 2nd 19,050 2,725 3.53%
Newbury Conservative 18,767 2nd 15,888 2,879 4.20%
Dorking and Horley Conservative 18,011 2nd 14,968 3,043 4.73%
Yeovil Conservative 19,633 2nd 16,537 3,096 4.41%
Bicester and Woodstock Conservative 17,831 3rd 14,581 3,250 4.20%
South Devon Conservative 19,069 3rd 15,738 3,331 4.56%
North Devon Conservative 20,823 2nd 17,476 3,347 4.41%
Romsey and Southampton North Conservative 18,919 2nd 15,554 3,365 4.50%
Glastonbury and Somerton Conservative 21,150 2nd 17,615 3,535 4.61%
Hitchin Conservative 17,074 3rd 13,383 3,691 5.51%
Frome and East Somerset Conservative 15,156 3rd 11,447 3,709 6.52%
North Norfolk Conservative 19,584 2nd 15,824 3,760 5.17%
Tunbridge Wells Conservative 20,706 2nd 16,865 3,841 5.13%
Wells and Mendip Hills Conservative 21,062 2nd 17,052 4,010 5.05%
North Cornwall Conservative 21,834 2nd 17,273 4,561 6.08%
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross SNP 17,631 2nd 12,473 5,158 7.10%
Surrey Heath Conservative 20,704 2nd 15,532 5,172 6.95%
Melksham and Devizes Conservative 19,943 2nd 14,312 5,631 7.90%
Mid Sussex Conservative 18,705 3rd 12,973 5,732 8.02%
South Cotswolds Conservative 19,295 2nd 13,538 5,757 8.67%
Epsom and Ewell Conservative 22,788 3rd 17,018 5,770 6.57%
Mid Dorset and North Poole Conservative 22,548 2nd 16,547 6,001 7.98%
Runnymede and Weybridge Conservative 19,910 3rd 13,825 6,085 7.57%
East Grinstead and Uckfield Conservative 18,904 3rd 12,813 6,091 8.74%
Chelmsford Conservative 21,283 3rd 15,126 6,157 7.91%
Mid Dunbartonshire SNP 20,425 3rd 14,046 6,379 8.41%
Newton Abbot Conservative 19,123 3rd 12,140 6,983 9.64%
Torbay Conservative 20,074 3rd 12,947 7,127 9.42%
Chelsea and Fulham Labour 18,924 3rd 11,720 7,204 10.13%
Mid Buckinghamshire Conservative 20,148 3rd 12,898 7,250 9.45%
Chesham and Amersham Conservative 20,521 3rd 13,199 7,322 9.75%
Windsor Conservative 16,454 3rd 9,130 7,324 11.03%
Horsham Conservative 21,362 3rd 13,865 7,497 9.61%
Tewkesbury Conservative 19,381 3rd 11,873 7,508 10.78%
Edinburgh West SNP 20,929 3rd 13,344 7,585 8.74%
East Hampshire Conservative 20,124 2nd 12,504 7,620 11.21%
Maidenhead Conservative 21,475 3rd 13,797 7,678 10.04%
Bridgwater Conservative 17,477 3rd 9,770 7,707 12.25%
North East Hampshire Conservative 22,559 2nd 14,766 7,793 10.12%
Sheffield Hallam Labour 24,799 2nd 16,820 7,979 10.76%
Reigate Conservative 19,220 3rd 11,231 7,989 10.46%
Stratford-on-Avon Conservative 22,328 2nd 14,128 8,200 11.08%
Aylesbury Labour 17,529 3rd 9,302 8,227 11.64%
North Cotswolds Conservative 19,753 3rd 10,832 8,921 11.94%
Chichester Conservative 21,251 3rd 12,296 8,955 11.61%
Banbury Labour 17,279 3rd 8,047 9,232 14.57%
Kenilworth and Southam Conservative 19,116 3rd 9,856 9,260 13.34%
East Surrey Conservative 19,254 3rd 9,986 9,268 13.68%
Arundel and South Downs Conservative 22,534 3rd 13,144 9,390 11.87%
South West Hertfordshire Conservative 15,879 4th 6,465 9,414 14.03%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Labour 18,460 3rd 8,778 9,682 13.66%
Buckingham and Bletchley Labour 18,049 3rd 8,325 9,724 14.26%
Salisbury Conservative 20,517 3rd 10,728 9,789 12.87%
Ceredigion Preseli Labour 16,586 4th 6,694 9,892 12.79%
Hamble Valley Conservative 22,101 3rd 12,073 10,028 13.16%
Reading West and Mid Berkshire Labour 19,264 3rd 9,165 10,099 14.93%
Sevenoaks Conservative 21,460 3rd 10,689 10,771 14.48%
Cities of London and Westminster Labour 24,820 2nd 13,849 10,971 12.85%
Solihull West and Shirley Conservative 20,796 3rd 9,506 11,290 14.74%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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