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VoteClimate: Liberal Democrats Most Winnable Seats

Liberal Democrats Most Winnable Seats

These are the seats where the Lib Dems have the best chance of winning, based on the least required swing in VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 25.5% | Reform: 25% | Conservative: 22% | Liberal Democrat: 13% | Green: 8.8%

[Last updated: 17 February 2025]

Constituency Expected Winner Lib Dems Votes Required
Bath Liberal Democrat 18,833 1st 18,833
Bicester and Woodstock Liberal Democrat 18,599 1st 18,599
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Liberal Democrat 13,297 1st 13,297
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Liberal Democrat 20,311 1st 20,311
Carshalton and Wallington Liberal Democrat 19,039 1st 19,039
Cheadle Liberal Democrat 22,448 1st 22,448
Chelmsford Liberal Democrat 19,169 1st 19,169
Cheltenham Liberal Democrat 25,977 1st 25,977
Chesham and Amersham Liberal Democrat 22,907 1st 22,907
Chichester Liberal Democrat 23,732 1st 23,732
Chippenham Liberal Democrat 21,116 1st 21,116
Didcot and Wantage Liberal Democrat 20,773 1st 20,773
Dorking and Horley Liberal Democrat 19,664 1st 19,664
East Hampshire Liberal Democrat 16,375 1st 16,375
Eastbourne Liberal Democrat 22,032 1st 22,032
Eastleigh Liberal Democrat 15,295 1st 15,295
Edinburgh West Liberal Democrat 24,720 1st 24,720
Ely and East Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat 16,521 1st 16,521
Epsom and Ewell Liberal Democrat 19,780 1st 19,780
Esher and Walton Liberal Democrat 26,351 1st 26,351
Farnham and Bordon Liberal Democrat 16,886 1st 16,886
Frome and East Somerset Liberal Democrat 15,701 1st 15,701
Glastonbury and Somerton Liberal Democrat 19,025 1st 19,025
Godalming and Ash Liberal Democrat 21,118 1st 21,118
Guildford Liberal Democrat 21,508 1st 21,508
Harpenden and Berkhamsted Liberal Democrat 25,541 1st 25,541
Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberal Democrat 22,467 1st 22,467
Hazel Grove Liberal Democrat 16,759 1st 16,759
Henley and Thame Liberal Democrat 22,395 1st 22,395
Honiton and Sidmouth Liberal Democrat 21,488 1st 21,488
Horsham Liberal Democrat 20,532 1st 20,532
Kingston and Surbiton Liberal Democrat 24,187 1st 24,187
Lewes Liberal Democrat 25,047 1st 25,047
Maidenhead Liberal Democrat 23,154 1st 23,154
Melksham and Devizes Liberal Democrat 18,937 1st 18,937
Mid Dorset and North Poole Liberal Democrat 22,590 1st 22,590
Mid Dunbartonshire Liberal Democrat 21,439 1st 21,439
Mid Sussex Liberal Democrat 20,269 1st 20,269
Newbury Liberal Democrat 18,508 1st 18,508
Newton Abbot Liberal Democrat 14,477 1st 14,477
North Cornwall Liberal Democrat 22,413 1st 22,413
North Devon Liberal Democrat 20,356 1st 20,356
North Dorset Liberal Democrat 15,754 1st 15,754
North East Fife Liberal Democrat 21,047 1st 21,047
North East Hampshire Liberal Democrat 20,065 1st 20,065
North Norfolk Liberal Democrat 18,311 1st 18,311
North Shropshire Liberal Democrat 24,310 1st 24,310
Orkney and Shetland Liberal Democrat 10,242 1st 10,242
Oxford West and Abingdon Liberal Democrat 21,958 1st 21,958
Richmond Park Liberal Democrat 26,620 1st 26,620
South Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat 24,220 1st 24,220
South Cotswolds Liberal Democrat 21,588 1st 21,588
South Devon Liberal Democrat 21,075 1st 21,075
South Shropshire Liberal Democrat 15,335 1st 15,335
St Albans Liberal Democrat 27,198 1st 27,198
St Ives Liberal Democrat 23,160 1st 23,160
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat 18,472 1st 18,472
Stratford-on-Avon Liberal Democrat 21,955 1st 21,955
Surrey Heath Liberal Democrat 20,046 1st 20,046
Sutton and Cheam Liberal Democrat 16,899 1st 16,899
Taunton and Wellington Liberal Democrat 22,643 1st 22,643
Tewkesbury Liberal Democrat 19,488 1st 19,488
Thornbury and Yate Liberal Democrat 19,684 1st 19,684
Tiverton and Minehead Liberal Democrat 17,283 1st 17,283
Torbay Liberal Democrat 17,726 1st 17,726
Tunbridge Wells Liberal Democrat 22,322 1st 22,322
Twickenham Liberal Democrat 28,208 1st 28,208
Wells and Mendip Hills Liberal Democrat 21,923 1st 21,923
West Dorset Liberal Democrat 28,020 1st 28,020
Westmorland and Lonsdale Liberal Democrat 28,542 1st 28,542
Wimbledon Liberal Democrat 23,850 1st 23,850
Winchester Liberal Democrat 27,804 1st 27,804
Witney Liberal Democrat 19,661 1st 19,661
Woking Liberal Democrat 22,504 1st 22,504
Wokingham Liberal Democrat 24,111 1st 24,111
Yeovil Liberal Democrat 22,026 1st 22,026
Romsey and Southampton North Conservative 16,877 2nd 16,845 32 0.04%
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire SNP 17,466 2nd 16,956 510 0.65%
North Cotswolds Conservative 15,002 2nd 13,625 1,377 1.88%
Exmouth and Exeter East Conservative 12,975 3rd 11,326 1,649 2.06%
Sheffield Hallam Labour 19,848 2nd 17,926 1,922 2.64%
Torridge and Tavistock Conservative 13,920 3rd 11,834 2,086 2.79%
Aylesbury Conservative 12,795 4th 10,448 2,347 2.96%
Hamble Valley Conservative 16,929 2nd 14,398 2,531 3.18%
Burnley Reform 11,580 2nd 9,127 2,453 3.27%
South West Hertfordshire Conservative 14,260 2nd 11,719 2,541 3.54%
Sevenoaks Conservative 15,670 3rd 12,411 3,259 4.42%
Hinckley and Bosworth Conservative 14,712 3rd 11,319 3,393 4.44%
Beaconsfield Conservative 15,895 2nd 12,611 3,284 4.51%
Bermondsey and Old Southwark Labour 12,417 2nd 9,215 3,202 4.61%
Salisbury Conservative 15,080 2nd 11,756 3,324 4.63%
Mid Buckinghamshire Conservative 17,386 2nd 13,870 3,516 4.65%
Watford Labour 11,469 4th 7,683 3,786 5.18%
West Worcestershire Conservative 16,977 3rd 12,806 4,171 5.26%
Spelthorne Reform 12,717 4th 8,675 4,042 5.48%
Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Labour 8,946 4th 4,626 4,320 5.62%
Cardiff East Labour 11,545 3rd 6,819 4,726 6.48%
South Dorset Reform 13,051 4th 8,109 4,942 6.51%
Sussex Weald Conservative 14,390 3rd 9,631 4,759 6.53%
Windsor Conservative 14,379 2nd 9,404 4,975 6.78%
Runnymede and Weybridge Conservative 16,072 3rd 10,640 5,432 7.38%
Christchurch Conservative 14,546 3rd 9,213 5,333 7.50%
Fareham and Waterlooville Conservative 15,350 3rd 9,435 5,915 7.69%
Suffolk Coastal Conservative 12,989 4th 7,049 5,940 7.97%
South East Cornwall Reform 14,174 4th 8,356 5,818 8.01%
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Conservative 12,775 4th 6,615 6,160 8.03%
Leicester East Conservative 12,468 5th 6,203 6,265 8.18%
Swansea West Labour 10,788 3rd 4,472 6,316 8.51%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Reform 12,890 4th 6,414 6,476 8.75%
Central Devon Conservative 14,987 4th 8,341 6,646 8.82%
Preston Other 10,091 5th 3,263 6,828 8.82%
Kenilworth and Southam Conservative 17,023 3rd 10,394 6,629 8.85%
Bournemouth West Reform 10,682 4th 4,458 6,224 8.86%
East Surrey Conservative 15,196 3rd 8,696 6,500 8.87%
Solihull West and Shirley Conservative 14,300 4th 7,893 6,407 8.92%
South West Wiltshire Conservative 13,769 4th 7,226 6,543 8.95%
East Wiltshire Conservative 14,844 4th 8,201 6,643 8.96%
Gloucester Labour 12,101 4th 4,926 7,175 9.03%
Southport Labour 12,712 4th 6,046 6,666 9.05%
New Forest West Conservative 14,365 3rd 8,126 6,239 9.09%
East Grinstead and Uckfield Conservative 18,852 2nd 11,949 6,903 9.16%
Cambridge Labour 16,371 2nd 9,858 6,513 9.26%
Colchester Labour 13,960 4th 6,621 7,339 9.33%
Bromsgrove Conservative 14,557 4th 7,415 7,142 9.34%
Bradford West Labour 8,166 6th 854 7,312 9.39%
Cities of London and Westminster Conservative 11,453 4th 4,531 6,922 9.43%
Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour 9,821 6th 2,504 7,317 9.46%
Birmingham Yardley Other 10,582 4th 3,605 6,977 9.53%
Maidstone and Malling Reform 13,744 4th 6,398 7,346 9.61%
South Norfolk Conservative 13,031 4th 5,913 7,118 9.62%
Poole Conservative 12,616 4th 5,622 6,994 9.65%
Bridgwater Reform 12,733 4th 5,800 6,933 9.69%
Wycombe Labour 11,732 5th 4,383 7,349 10.01%
Hemel Hempstead Labour 12,429 4th 5,278 7,151 10.07%
North West Hampshire Conservative 15,757 4th 7,699 8,058 10.25%
North West Norfolk Conservative 14,164 4th 6,509 7,655 10.29%
South Suffolk Conservative 14,169 4th 6,468 7,701 10.32%
North Northumberland Labour 13,101 4th 5,340 7,761 10.46%
Bracknell Conservative 12,547 4th 4,914 7,633 10.65%
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich Conservative 13,220 5th 5,415 7,805 10.69%
South Leicestershire Conservative 16,055 4th 7,630 8,425 10.73%
Hereford and South Herefordshire Conservative 13,203 4th 5,423 7,780 10.78%
Bradford East Other 10,235 6th 2,011 8,224 10.94%
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Reform 9,573 6th 1,036 8,537 10.98%
Poplar and Limehouse Labour 13,629 5th 4,351 9,278 11.03%
Daventry Conservative 15,810 4th 6,835 8,975 11.10%
Oldham East and Saddleworth Reform 11,629 5th 3,477 8,152 11.10%
New Forest East Conservative 15,138 3rd 7,115 8,023 11.36%
Gordon and Buchan SNP 15,530 4th 7,576 7,954 11.43%
City of Durham Labour 14,249 3rd 6,148 8,101 11.48%
Weston-super-Mare Reform 12,135 4th 3,937 8,198 11.48%
Broadland and Fakenham Conservative 14,561 4th 5,663 8,898 11.58%
Luton North Labour 10,705 6th 2,024 8,681 11.60%
North East Hertfordshire Conservative 14,769 4th 5,654 9,115 11.73%
St Austell and Newquay Reform 13,914 4th 4,953 8,961 11.78%
Truro and Falmouth Labour 15,434 4th 6,804 8,630 11.82%
Reading West and Mid Berkshire Conservative 13,410 4th 5,275 8,135 11.83%
Isle of Wight East Reform 10,127 5th 3,517 6,610 11.83%
Gateshead Central and Whickham Labour 13,510 3rd 5,172 8,338 11.94%
Halifax Reform 11,767 6th 2,481 9,286 11.98%
Huddersfield Green 11,207 5th 1,881 9,326 11.99%
Arundel and South Downs Conservative 19,082 3rd 9,702 9,380 12.03%
Rochdale Other 11,587 5th 2,858 8,729 12.04%
Bangor Aberconwy Reform 10,167 6th 1,656 8,511 12.07%
Brent West Labour 12,936 5th 3,233 9,703 12.12%
Milton Keynes Central Labour 15,075 4th 5,184 9,891 12.20%
Portsmouth South Labour 14,122 4th 5,124 8,998 12.21%
Birmingham Ladywood Other 12,137 6th 1,835 10,302 12.31%
Buckingham and Bletchley Conservative 13,723 4th 4,502 9,221 12.32%
Kingston upon Hull East Reform 12,174 3rd 3,364 8,810 12.47%
Isle of Wight West Labour 9,801 5th 2,876 6,925 12.50%
Morecambe and Lunesdale Labour 14,586 4th 5,009 9,577 12.53%
North Somerset Conservative 16,703 4th 7,347 9,356 12.57%
West Suffolk Reform 14,080 4th 4,376 9,704 12.58%
Banbury Conservative 13,799 4th 4,573 9,226 12.60%
The Wrekin Reform 14,880 4th 4,894 9,986 12.65%
Kensington and Bayswater Conservative 12,926 5th 3,125 9,801 12.68%
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Reform 14,927 4th 5,181 9,746 12.68%
Penrith and Solway Labour 14,881 4th 4,990 9,891 12.69%
Gainsborough Conservative 14,746 4th 5,100 9,646 12.72%
Leicester West Labour 11,773 5th 2,347 9,426 12.72%
Southend East and Rochford Labour 11,396 5th 2,439 8,957 12.76%
Reigate Conservative 16,739 4th 6,891 9,848 12.77%
Edinburgh South Labour 13,267 4th 4,217 9,050 12.78%
Worcester Labour 13,793 5th 4,191 9,602 12.81%
Leeds Central and Headingley Labour 11,843 4th 2,774 9,069 12.85%
Southampton Test Labour 11,865 5th 3,428 8,437 12.88%
Newport East Labour 12,096 6th 2,205 9,891 12.90%
Ribble Valley Conservative 15,596 4th 5,202 10,394 12.91%
Feltham and Heston Labour 11,947 6th 1,986 9,961 12.94%
Birmingham Erdington Reform 11,312 6th 1,270 10,042 12.96%
Southampton Itchen Labour 11,727 5th 2,859 8,868 12.97%
Cardiff West Labour 11,893 6th 2,061 9,832 12.99%
Wakefield and Rothwell Labour 13,190 4th 3,436 9,754 12.99%
North West Cambridgeshire Reform 13,240 5th 3,350 9,890 13.03%
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Other 11,299 6th 1,376 9,923 13.05%
Bedford Labour 13,725 4th 4,252 9,473 13.07%
Ilford South Labour 12,093 6th 1,493 10,600 13.09%
Croydon East Labour 13,827 5th 3,782 10,045 13.11%
West Ham and Beckton Labour 12,161 6th 1,758 10,403 13.17%
Caerphilly Reform 11,478 6th 1,905 9,573 13.18%
Shrewsbury Labour 17,126 4th 7,020 10,106 13.19%
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket Reform 13,697 5th 3,324 10,373 13.22%
Walsall and Bloxwich Reform 10,853 6th 942 9,911 13.22%
Ealing Central and Acton Labour 16,714 5th 6,342 10,372 13.22%
South West Devon Conservative 15,949 4th 5,687 10,262 13.22%
Bolton South and Walkden Reform 12,050 6th 1,519 10,531 13.23%
Southend West and Leigh Conservative 13,317 5th 3,358 9,959 13.25%
Aldershot Labour 14,708 4th 4,287 10,421 13.27%
Pontypridd Labour 11,835 7th 1,746 10,089 13.28%
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine SNP 16,646 4th 6,943 9,703 13.29%
Birmingham Northfield Reform 11,811 5th 1,948 9,863 13.32%
Northampton South Reform 12,782 4th 3,382 9,400 13.35%
Stevenage Labour 13,155 4th 3,669 9,486 13.37%
Mid and South Pembrokeshire Conservative 13,159 5th 2,553 10,606 13.42%
Cardiff South and Penarth Labour 12,910 6th 3,081 9,829 13.45%
Camborne and Redruth Labour 14,331 4th 4,323 10,008 13.46%
Bethnal Green and Stepney Other 15,699 5th 4,733 10,966 13.47%
Bradford South Reform 10,630 6th 1,065 9,565 13.47%
Exeter Labour 13,551 5th 4,401 9,150 13.49%
Barking Labour 11,995 6th 1,164 10,831 13.57%
Peterborough Conservative 11,849 6th 1,890 9,959 13.57%
Portsmouth North Reform 12,761 4th 3,191 9,570 13.58%
Torfaen Reform 11,552 6th 1,790 9,762 13.61%
Faversham and Mid Kent Reform 14,403 5th 4,261 10,142 13.65%
Brentford and Isleworth Labour 14,945 5th 4,099 10,846 13.66%
Birmingham Selly Oak Labour 12,911 6th 2,499 10,412 13.76%
Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Labour 13,818 4th 3,448 10,370 13.78%
Brentwood and Ongar Reform 16,246 4th 5,829 10,417 13.82%
Bromley and Biggin Hill Conservative 14,295 4th 4,518 9,777 13.83%
Clwyd North Conservative 12,255 6th 1,851 10,404 13.87%
Hampstead and Highgate Labour 17,593 5th 6,495 11,098 13.87%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk SNP 15,087 4th 4,486 10,601 13.87%
Wrexham Labour 11,688 6th 1,941 9,747 13.87%
North West Essex Conservative 17,278 4th 6,209 11,069 13.89%
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber SNP 17,732 3rd 7,761 9,971 13.90%
Manchester Central Labour 15,111 4th 3,261 11,850 13.91%
Hertford and Stortford Labour 15,406 5th 4,403 11,003 13.94%
Newport West and Islwyn Reform 12,846 6th 2,252 10,594 13.98%
Carlisle Reform 14,108 4th 3,183 10,925 14.03%
Derby South Reform 12,205 6th 1,933 10,272 14.08%
Birmingham Edgbaston Labour 12,400 6th 2,283 10,117 14.09%
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Reform 11,963 6th 1,416 10,547 14.16%
Bristol South Labour 13,615 5th 2,888 10,727 14.20%
Maldon Reform 16,991 4th 5,870 11,121 14.21%
Redcar Labour 11,703 5th 1,718 9,985 14.22%
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale SNP 13,945 5th 3,724 10,221 14.22%
Altrincham and Sale West Labour 15,518 4th 4,994 10,524 14.22%
Tipton and Wednesbury Reform 11,264 6th 717 10,547 14.23%
Crawley Reform 13,161 6th 2,390 10,771 14.25%
Clapham and Brixton Hill Labour 18,421 3rd 6,549 11,872 14.28%
Bournemouth East Labour 13,632 5th 3,294 10,338 14.29%
Wolverhampton North East Reform 11,297 5th 1,150 10,147 14.35%
Huntingdon Conservative 16,347 4th 4,994 11,353 14.36%
Bridgend Reform 12,111 7th 1,602 10,509 14.36%
North Durham Reform 14,881 4th 4,348 10,533 14.38%
Slough Other 13,870 6th 2,169 11,701 14.39%
Heywood and Middleton North Reform 13,059 5th 2,498 10,561 14.40%
Mid Bedfordshire Conservative 15,095 4th 4,223 10,872 14.41%
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Labour 13,375 4th 2,820 10,555 14.41%
Earley and Woodley Conservative 17,799 3rd 7,193 10,606 14.42%
Beverley and Holderness Conservative 13,948 4th 3,559 10,389 14.43%
Wyre Forest Reform 14,114 5th 2,944 11,170 14.44%
Gillingham and Rainham Reform 13,045 5th 2,416 10,629 14.46%
Derbyshire Dales Conservative 15,673 4th 5,057 10,616 14.48%
Harwich and North Essex Conservative 14,778 4th 3,723 11,055 14.49%
Lichfield Conservative 14,795 4th 3,765 11,030 14.49%
Pendle and Clitheroe Conservative 13,681 6th 2,218 11,463 14.55%
Sunderland Central Reform 14,880 4th 3,758 11,122 14.61%
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Labour 12,173 6th 1,195 10,978 14.61%
Loughborough Labour 12,840 5th 2,757 10,083 14.62%
Hyndburn Reform 11,182 5th 1,342 9,840 14.65%
Nottingham South Labour 11,661 5th 2,225 9,436 14.69%
Canterbury Labour 14,473 5th 4,023 10,450 14.69%
Bolton West Reform 13,161 5th 2,152 11,009 14.69%
Halesowen Reform 12,503 5th 2,424 10,079 14.70%
Nottingham North and Kimberley Labour 12,355 5th 1,501 10,854 14.71%
Northampton North Labour 13,567 6th 2,444 11,123 14.72%
Streatham and Croydon North Labour 17,536 4th 5,335 12,201 14.73%
Lothian East SNP 15,152 5th 4,024 11,128 14.75%
Rugby Labour 14,530 5th 3,480 11,050 14.75%
Havant Reform 14,087 5th 3,392 10,695 14.79%
Stratford and Bow Labour 14,055 6th 2,092 11,963 14.82%
Redditch Reform 12,861 5th 2,331 10,530 14.82%
Bexhill and Battle Conservative 14,313 6th 3,593 10,720 14.85%
Broxtowe Labour 14,483 5th 4,017 10,466 14.86%
Vauxhall and Camberwell Green Labour 16,397 4th 4,856 11,541 14.89%
Orpington Conservative 15,503 4th 4,825 10,678 14.98%
Thirsk and Malton Conservative 17,200 4th 5,445 11,755 14.98%
Broxbourne Conservative 14,106 5th 2,830 11,276 14.99%
Stoke-on-Trent Central Reform 12,213 6th 1,143 11,070 15.00%
Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Labour 14,990 4th 4,674 10,316 15.00%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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