VoteClimate: Liberal Democrats Most Winnable Seats

Liberal Democrats Most Winnable Seats

These are the seats where the Lib Dems have the best chance of winning, based on the least required swing in VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%

[Last updated: September 2023]

Constituency Expected Winner Lib Dems Votes Required
Bath Liberal Democrat 26,806 1st 26,806
Carshalton and Wallington Liberal Democrat 19,226 1st 19,226
Cheadle Liberal Democrat 22,945 1st 22,945
Cheltenham Liberal Democrat 28,230 1st 28,230
Eastbourne Liberal Democrat 21,508 1st 21,508
Eastleigh Liberal Democrat 19,025 1st 19,025
Esher and Walton Liberal Democrat 23,620 1st 23,620
Godalming and Ash Liberal Democrat 18,667 1st 18,667
Guildford Liberal Democrat 21,409 1st 21,409
Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberal Democrat 19,518 1st 19,518
Hazel Grove Liberal Democrat 15,908 1st 15,908
Kingston and Surbiton Liberal Democrat 26,068 1st 26,068
Lewes Liberal Democrat 23,175 1st 23,175
Orkney and Shetland Liberal Democrat 8,353 1st 8,353
Oxford West and Abingdon Liberal Democrat 26,072 1st 26,072
Richmond Park Liberal Democrat 34,879 1st 34,879
South Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat 20,929 1st 20,929
St Albans Liberal Democrat 25,009 1st 25,009
St Ives Liberal Democrat 21,699 1st 21,699
Sutton and Cheam Liberal Democrat 16,513 1st 16,513
Taunton and Wellington Liberal Democrat 22,232 1st 22,232
Twickenham Liberal Democrat 33,265 1st 33,265
Westmorland and Lonsdale Liberal Democrat 20,874 1st 20,874
Wimbledon Liberal Democrat 21,275 1st 21,275
Winchester Liberal Democrat 24,915 1st 24,915
Woking Conservative 16,018 2nd 15,996 22 0.03%
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Conservative 16,305 2nd 16,212 93 0.14%
Didcot and Wantage Conservative 17,701 2nd 17,593 108 0.15%
Farnham and Bordon Conservative 19,210 2nd 18,727 483 0.69%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Conservative 15,295 2nd 14,788 507 0.70%
Wokingham Conservative 20,669 2nd 19,421 1,248 1.50%
Ely and East Cambridgeshire Conservative 16,973 2nd 15,610 1,363 1.99%
Witney Conservative 17,805 2nd 16,255 1,550 2.25%
West Dorset Conservative 20,953 2nd 19,164 1,789 2.30%
Henley and Thame Conservative 19,477 2nd 17,396 2,081 2.94%
Harpenden and Berkhamsted Conservative 18,141 3rd 15,747 2,394 3.08%
North East Fife SNP 18,845 2nd 16,372 2,473 3.58%
Chippenham Conservative 20,688 2nd 18,081 2,607 3.49%
Thornbury and Yate Conservative 21,789 2nd 19,060 2,729 3.53%
Finchley and Golders Green Labour 20,302 2nd 17,483 2,819 3.62%
Newbury Conservative 18,768 2nd 15,887 2,881 4.20%
Dorking and Horley Conservative 18,017 2nd 14,975 3,042 4.73%
Yeovil Conservative 19,635 2nd 16,539 3,096 4.41%
Bicester and Woodstock Conservative 17,806 3rd 14,565 3,241 4.20%
South Devon Conservative 19,067 3rd 15,740 3,327 4.56%
North Devon Conservative 20,823 2nd 17,480 3,343 4.41%
Romsey and Southampton North Conservative 18,912 2nd 15,553 3,359 4.50%
Glastonbury and Somerton Conservative 21,147 2nd 17,611 3,536 4.61%
Hitchin Conservative 17,091 3rd 13,388 3,703 5.52%
Frome and East Somerset Conservative 15,154 3rd 11,446 3,708 6.52%
North Norfolk Conservative 19,585 2nd 15,826 3,759 5.17%
Tunbridge Wells Conservative 20,706 2nd 16,866 3,840 5.13%
Wells and Mendip Hills Conservative 21,043 2nd 17,042 4,001 5.04%
North Cornwall Conservative 21,838 2nd 17,276 4,562 6.08%
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross SNP 17,642 2nd 12,476 5,166 7.10%
Surrey Heath Conservative 20,708 2nd 15,537 5,171 6.95%
Melksham and Devizes Conservative 19,955 2nd 14,324 5,631 7.90%
Mid Sussex Conservative 18,714 3rd 12,978 5,736 8.02%
South Cotswolds Conservative 19,276 2nd 13,527 5,749 8.67%
Epsom and Ewell Conservative 22,768 3rd 16,999 5,769 6.58%
Mid Dorset and North Poole Conservative 22,552 2nd 16,549 6,003 7.99%
Runnymede and Weybridge Conservative 19,902 3rd 13,820 6,082 7.57%
East Grinstead and Uckfield Conservative 18,885 3rd 12,799 6,086 8.75%
Chelmsford Conservative 21,281 3rd 15,123 6,158 7.91%
Mid Dunbartonshire SNP 20,438 3rd 14,050 6,388 8.42%
Newton Abbot Conservative 19,122 3rd 12,140 6,982 9.64%
Torbay Conservative 20,077 3rd 12,946 7,131 9.43%
Chelsea and Fulham Labour 18,940 3rd 11,723 7,217 10.15%
Mid Buckinghamshire Conservative 20,208 3rd 12,931 7,277 9.45%
Chesham and Amersham Conservative 20,515 3rd 13,195 7,320 9.75%
Windsor Conservative 16,452 3rd 9,125 7,327 11.03%
Tewkesbury Conservative 19,362 3rd 11,861 7,501 10.78%
Horsham Conservative 21,402 3rd 13,889 7,513 9.61%
Edinburgh West SNP 20,934 3rd 13,346 7,588 8.74%
East Hampshire Conservative 20,118 2nd 12,503 7,615 11.21%
Maidenhead Conservative 21,473 3rd 13,794 7,679 10.04%
Bridgwater Conservative 17,477 3rd 9,776 7,701 12.24%
North East Hampshire Conservative 22,548 2nd 14,759 7,789 10.12%
Sheffield Hallam Labour 24,802 2nd 16,820 7,982 10.76%
Reigate Conservative 19,224 3rd 11,234 7,990 10.46%
Aylesbury Labour 17,450 3rd 9,248 8,202 11.66%
Stratford-on-Avon Conservative 22,334 2nd 14,129 8,205 11.09%
North Cotswolds Conservative 19,788 3rd 10,849 8,939 11.95%
Chichester Conservative 21,239 3rd 12,286 8,953 11.61%
Kenilworth and Southam Conservative 19,084 3rd 9,847 9,237 13.33%
Banbury Labour 17,312 3rd 8,058 9,254 14.58%
East Surrey Conservative 19,262 3rd 9,992 9,270 13.68%
Arundel and South Downs Conservative 22,537 3rd 13,147 9,390 11.87%
South West Hertfordshire Conservative 15,877 4th 6,464 9,413 14.03%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Labour 18,458 3rd 8,775 9,683 13.67%
Buckingham and Bletchley Labour 18,050 3rd 8,345 9,705 14.22%
Salisbury Conservative 20,529 3rd 10,726 9,803 12.88%
Ceredigion Preseli Labour 16,593 4th 6,700 9,893 12.79%
Hamble Valley Conservative 22,003 3rd 12,019 9,984 13.15%
Reading West and Mid Berkshire Labour 19,302 3rd 9,175 10,127 14.94%
Sevenoaks Conservative 21,472 3rd 10,693 10,779 14.48%
Cities of London and Westminster Labour 24,828 2nd 13,851 10,977 12.86%
Solihull West and Shirley Conservative 20,808 3rd 9,509 11,299 14.75%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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