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VoteClimate: Liberal Democrats Most Winnable Seats

Liberal Democrats Most Winnable Seats

These are the seats where the Lib Dems have the best chance of winning, based on the least required swing in VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (GB): Conservative: 26% | Labour: 25.5% | Reform: 21.5% | Liberal Democrat: 12.7% | Green: 8%

[Last updated: 31 December 2024]

Constituency Expected Winner Lib Dems Votes Required
Bath Liberal Democrat 18,965 1st 18,965
Bicester and Woodstock Liberal Democrat 18,486 1st 18,486
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Liberal Democrat 13,219 1st 13,219
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Liberal Democrat 15,633 1st 15,633
Carshalton and Wallington Liberal Democrat 18,984 1st 18,984
Cheadle Liberal Democrat 22,473 1st 22,473
Chelmsford Liberal Democrat 19,026 1st 19,026
Cheltenham Liberal Democrat 24,777 1st 24,777
Chesham and Amersham Liberal Democrat 22,665 1st 22,665
Chichester Liberal Democrat 23,692 1st 23,692
Chippenham Liberal Democrat 21,006 1st 21,006
Didcot and Wantage Liberal Democrat 20,658 1st 20,658
Dorking and Horley Liberal Democrat 19,514 1st 19,514
Eastbourne Liberal Democrat 22,010 1st 22,010
Eastleigh Liberal Democrat 15,154 1st 15,154
Edinburgh West Liberal Democrat 18,750 1st 18,750
Epsom and Ewell Liberal Democrat 19,613 1st 19,613
Esher and Walton Liberal Democrat 26,208 1st 26,208
Frome and East Somerset Liberal Democrat 15,667 1st 15,667
Glastonbury and Somerton Liberal Democrat 18,920 1st 18,920
Guildford Liberal Democrat 21,382 1st 21,382
Harpenden and Berkhamsted Liberal Democrat 25,390 1st 25,390
Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberal Democrat 22,328 1st 22,328
Hazel Grove Liberal Democrat 16,800 1st 16,800
Henley and Thame Liberal Democrat 22,191 1st 22,191
Honiton and Sidmouth Liberal Democrat 21,313 1st 21,313
Horsham Liberal Democrat 20,301 1st 20,301
Kingston and Surbiton Liberal Democrat 24,357 1st 24,357
Lewes Liberal Democrat 24,983 1st 24,983
Maidenhead Liberal Democrat 21,993 1st 21,993
Melksham and Devizes Liberal Democrat 18,726 1st 18,726
Mid Dorset and North Poole Liberal Democrat 21,410 1st 21,410
Mid Dunbartonshire Liberal Democrat 15,370 1st 15,370
Mid Sussex Liberal Democrat 20,180 1st 20,180
Newbury Liberal Democrat 18,290 1st 18,290
Newton Abbot Liberal Democrat 14,390 1st 14,390
North Cornwall Liberal Democrat 22,330 1st 22,330
North Devon Liberal Democrat 20,235 1st 20,235
North East Fife Liberal Democrat 16,497 1st 16,497
North Norfolk Liberal Democrat 18,090 1st 18,090
North Shropshire Liberal Democrat 24,362 1st 24,362
Orkney and Shetland Liberal Democrat 8,008 1st 8,008
Oxford West and Abingdon Liberal Democrat 22,075 1st 22,075
Richmond Park Liberal Democrat 26,685 1st 26,685
South Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat 24,135 1st 24,135
South Cotswolds Liberal Democrat 21,364 1st 21,364
South Devon Liberal Democrat 20,921 1st 20,921
St Albans Liberal Democrat 27,363 1st 27,363
St Ives Liberal Democrat 23,179 1st 23,179
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat 18,365 1st 18,365
Stratford-on-Avon Liberal Democrat 21,801 1st 21,801
Surrey Heath Liberal Democrat 19,868 1st 19,868
Sutton and Cheam Liberal Democrat 16,788 1st 16,788
Taunton and Wellington Liberal Democrat 22,625 1st 22,625
Tewkesbury Liberal Democrat 19,365 1st 19,365
Thornbury and Yate Liberal Democrat 19,483 1st 19,483
Tiverton and Minehead Liberal Democrat 17,139 1st 17,139
Torbay Liberal Democrat 17,614 1st 17,614
Tunbridge Wells Liberal Democrat 22,230 1st 22,230
Twickenham Liberal Democrat 28,431 1st 28,431
Wells and Mendip Hills Liberal Democrat 21,901 1st 21,901
West Dorset Liberal Democrat 26,709 1st 26,709
Westmorland and Lonsdale Liberal Democrat 28,695 1st 28,695
Wimbledon Liberal Democrat 23,882 1st 23,882
Winchester Liberal Democrat 27,704 1st 27,704
Witney Liberal Democrat 19,482 1st 19,482
Woking Liberal Democrat 22,451 1st 22,451
Wokingham Liberal Democrat 23,923 1st 23,923
Yeovil Liberal Democrat 22,032 1st 22,032
North East Hampshire Conservative 19,976 2nd 19,790 186 0.24%
Ely and East Cambridgeshire Conservative 16,628 2nd 16,351 277 0.35%
Burnley Reform 10,324 3rd 9,101 1,223 1.63%
Godalming and Ash Conservative 22,314 2nd 20,734 1,580 2.08%
Farnham and Bordon Conservative 18,676 2nd 16,654 2,022 2.66%
East Hampshire Conservative 18,027 2nd 16,136 1,891 2.68%
Sheffield Hallam Labour 19,468 2nd 17,412 2,056 2.82%
South Shropshire Conservative 17,399 2nd 15,138 2,261 2.95%
North Dorset Conservative 17,700 2nd 15,526 2,174 2.99%
Romsey and Southampton North Conservative 19,306 2nd 16,562 2,744 3.82%
Bermondsey and Old Southwark Labour 12,709 2nd 9,317 3,392 4.88%
Exmouth and Exeter East Conservative 15,220 2nd 11,196 4,024 5.03%
North Cotswolds Conservative 17,337 2nd 13,428 3,909 5.34%
Watford Conservative 11,658 4th 7,596 4,062 5.56%
Aylesbury Conservative 14,998 3rd 10,317 4,681 5.91%
Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Labour 9,222 4th 4,647 4,575 5.95%
Torridge and Tavistock Conservative 16,204 3rd 11,676 4,528 6.06%
Hamble Valley Conservative 19,491 2nd 14,164 5,327 6.70%
Cardiff East Labour 11,805 3rd 6,854 4,951 6.79%
South West Hertfordshire Conservative 16,500 2nd 11,540 4,960 6.91%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Reform 11,586 4th 6,376 5,210 7.04%
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire SNP 17,650 2nd 12,029 5,621 7.21%
Hinckley and Bosworth Conservative 16,967 3rd 11,128 5,839 7.64%
Sevenoaks Conservative 18,030 2nd 12,197 5,833 7.91%
Spelthorne Conservative 14,413 4th 8,541 5,872 7.96%
Beaconsfield Conservative 18,213 2nd 12,377 5,836 8.02%
Salisbury Conservative 17,449 2nd 11,568 5,881 8.19%
Mid Buckinghamshire Conservative 19,979 2nd 13,627 6,352 8.40%
South East Cornwall Conservative 14,369 4th 8,231 6,138 8.45%
West Worcestershire Conservative 19,557 2nd 12,582 6,975 8.80%
Swansea West Labour 11,041 3rd 4,469 6,572 8.85%
Preston Labour 10,268 5th 3,218 7,050 9.11%
Cambridge Labour 16,049 2nd 9,524 6,525 9.28%
Southport Labour 12,776 4th 5,941 6,835 9.28%
Oldham East and Saddleworth Reform 10,415 5th 3,412 7,003 9.53%
South Dorset Conservative 15,211 4th 7,969 7,242 9.54%
Birmingham Yardley Other 10,582 5th 3,599 6,983 9.54%
Colchester Labour 14,057 4th 6,531 7,526 9.57%
Bridgwater Conservative 12,612 4th 5,681 6,931 9.68%
Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour 9,982 6th 2,429 7,553 9.77%
Bradford West Labour 8,459 6th 776 7,683 9.86%
Sussex Weald Conservative 16,651 3rd 9,458 7,193 9.87%
Windsor Conservative 16,550 2nd 9,218 7,332 10.00%
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Other 9,089 6th 958 8,131 10.46%
Halifax Reform 10,505 6th 2,390 8,115 10.47%
Bournemouth West Conservative 11,770 4th 4,349 7,421 10.56%
Hemel Hempstead Conservative 12,750 4th 5,163 7,587 10.68%
Wycombe Conservative 12,137 5th 4,273 7,864 10.71%
Maidstone and Malling Conservative 14,518 4th 6,262 8,256 10.80%
Christchurch Conservative 16,766 3rd 9,031 7,735 10.89%
Runnymede and Weybridge Conservative 18,435 2nd 10,422 8,013 10.89%
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Conservative 14,890 4th 6,475 8,415 10.97%
Fareham and Waterlooville Conservative 17,724 3rd 9,250 8,474 11.01%
Leicester East Conservative 14,529 4th 6,065 8,464 11.06%
Suffolk Coastal Conservative 15,201 4th 6,909 8,292 11.13%
North Northumberland Conservative 13,571 4th 5,219 8,352 11.26%
Gloucester Conservative 13,755 4th 4,799 8,956 11.27%
Bradford East Labour 10,443 6th 1,957 8,486 11.29%
Kingston upon Hull East Reform 11,371 3rd 3,346 8,025 11.36%
Poplar and Limehouse Labour 13,941 6th 4,319 9,622 11.44%
Walsall and Bloxwich Reform 9,730 6th 846 8,884 11.85%
City of Durham Labour 14,505 3rd 6,132 8,373 11.86%
Luton North Labour 10,867 6th 1,938 8,929 11.93%
Huddersfield Labour 11,161 5th 1,786 9,375 12.05%
Rochdale Other 11,587 5th 2,817 8,770 12.10%
Truro and Falmouth Labour 15,518 4th 6,688 8,830 12.10%
Cities of London and Westminster Conservative 13,313 4th 4,404 8,909 12.14%
South West Wiltshire Conservative 15,941 4th 7,067 8,874 12.14%
Bradford South Reform 9,668 6th 985 8,683 12.23%
Solihull West and Shirley Conservative 16,522 4th 7,724 8,798 12.25%
St Austell and Newquay Conservative 14,146 4th 4,821 9,325 12.26%
East Wiltshire Conservative 17,116 4th 8,022 9,094 12.27%
Bangor Aberconwy Labour 10,223 6th 1,551 8,672 12.30%
East Surrey Conservative 17,526 3rd 8,511 9,015 12.30%
Caerphilly Labour 10,769 6th 1,835 8,934 12.30%
Central Devon Conservative 17,449 4th 8,174 9,275 12.30%
Gateshead Central and Whickham Labour 13,772 4th 5,149 8,623 12.35%
Bolton South and Walkden Labour 11,274 6th 1,440 9,834 12.35%
Birmingham Ladywood Other 12,137 6th 1,791 10,346 12.36%
Weston-super-Mare Conservative 12,645 4th 3,818 8,827 12.36%
Milton Keynes Central Labour 15,127 4th 5,057 10,070 12.42%
Birmingham Northfield Labour 11,097 5th 1,845 9,252 12.49%
New Forest West Conservative 16,572 3rd 7,953 8,619 12.56%
Kenilworth and Southam Conservative 19,599 3rd 10,180 9,419 12.57%
Portsmouth South Labour 14,357 4th 5,088 9,269 12.57%
Bromsgrove Conservative 16,894 4th 7,250 9,644 12.61%
Isle of Wight East Conservative 10,467 5th 3,419 7,048 12.62%
East Grinstead and Uckfield Conservative 20,729 2nd 11,216 9,513 12.62%
Poole Conservative 14,678 4th 5,482 9,196 12.68%
Derby South Reform 11,122 6th 1,857 9,265 12.70%
North Durham Reform 13,639 4th 4,289 9,350 12.77%
Birmingham Erdington Labour 11,103 6th 1,185 9,918 12.80%
South Norfolk Conservative 15,260 4th 5,773 9,487 12.82%
Heywood and Middleton North Reform 11,803 5th 2,398 9,405 12.83%
Morecambe and Lunesdale Conservative 14,723 4th 4,872 9,851 12.89%
Tipton and Wednesbury Reform 10,196 6th 625 9,571 12.92%
Leicester West Labour 11,903 5th 2,263 9,640 13.01%
Worcester Labour 13,870 5th 4,075 9,795 13.07%
Sunderland Central Reform 13,700 4th 3,697 10,003 13.14%
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Other 11,299 6th 1,299 10,000 13.15%
Halesowen Conservative 11,349 5th 2,315 9,034 13.18%
Southampton Itchen Labour 11,786 5th 2,758 9,028 13.20%
Southampton Test Labour 12,013 5th 3,361 8,652 13.21%
Feltham and Heston Labour 12,077 6th 1,889 10,188 13.23%
Newport East Labour 12,282 6th 2,121 10,161 13.25%
Leeds Central and Headingley Labour 12,135 5th 2,745 9,390 13.31%
Wakefield and Rothwell Labour 13,362 4th 3,356 10,006 13.33%
Croydon East Labour 13,878 5th 3,663 10,215 13.34%
Bedford Labour 13,851 4th 4,166 9,685 13.36%
South West Norfolk Reform 12,590 5th 2,583 10,007 13.39%
North West Norfolk Conservative 16,317 4th 6,345 9,972 13.40%
Bethnal Green and Stepney Other 15,699 5th 4,778 10,921 13.41%
Cardiff West Labour 12,128 6th 1,968 10,160 13.42%
Torfaen Labour 11,385 6th 1,710 9,675 13.49%
Shrewsbury Labour 17,266 4th 6,920 10,346 13.51%
Ilford South Labour 12,352 6th 1,400 10,952 13.52%
Bolton North East Reform 12,403 6th 1,553 10,850 13.56%
South Suffolk Conservative 16,440 4th 6,310 10,130 13.58%
North West Hampshire Conservative 18,196 4th 7,517 10,679 13.58%
Gillingham and Rainham Conservative 12,291 5th 2,297 9,994 13.59%
Ealing Central and Acton Labour 16,947 4th 6,283 10,664 13.60%
Stevenage Labour 13,215 4th 3,556 9,659 13.61%
Wolverhampton North East Labour 10,706 5th 1,053 9,653 13.65%
West Ham and Beckton Labour 12,476 6th 1,691 10,785 13.66%
Bracknell Conservative 14,592 4th 4,777 9,815 13.70%
Camborne and Redruth Labour 14,423 4th 4,206 10,217 13.74%
Stoke-on-Trent Central Labour 11,206 6th 1,052 10,154 13.76%
Carlisle Conservative 13,772 4th 3,052 10,720 13.77%
Pontypridd Labour 12,147 7th 1,671 10,476 13.79%
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich Conservative 15,351 5th 5,269 10,082 13.80%
Aldershot Conservative 15,025 4th 4,147 10,878 13.85%
Cardiff South and Penarth Labour 13,145 6th 3,016 10,129 13.86%
Exeter Labour 13,757 5th 4,344 9,413 13.88%
Southend East and Rochford Conservative 12,077 5th 2,323 9,754 13.89%
Penrith and Solway Conservative 15,686 4th 4,843 10,843 13.91%
Hereford and South Herefordshire Conservative 15,330 4th 5,278 10,052 13.92%
Chatham and Aylesford Reform 12,664 5th 2,198 10,466 13.93%
Brentford and Isleworth Labour 15,074 5th 3,995 11,079 13.95%
Barking Labour 12,256 6th 1,077 11,179 14.00%
Neath and Swansea East Reform 13,112 5th 2,423 10,689 14.01%
Brent West Conservative 14,338 5th 3,100 11,238 14.04%
Havant Conservative 13,450 5th 3,266 10,184 14.08%
South Leicestershire Conservative 18,518 4th 7,444 11,074 14.11%
Wrexham Labour 11,766 5th 1,832 9,934 14.14%
Birmingham Selly Oak Labour 13,127 6th 2,422 10,705 14.15%
Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Labour 14,075 4th 3,394 10,681 14.19%
Crawley Conservative 13,011 6th 2,262 10,749 14.22%
Hampstead and Highgate Labour 17,831 5th 6,433 11,398 14.24%
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Labour 11,953 6th 1,346 10,607 14.25%
Isle of Wight West Conservative 10,671 4th 2,775 7,896 14.25%
Newport West and Islwyn Labour 13,025 6th 2,161 10,864 14.34%
South Shields Labour 11,289 6th 1,458 9,831 14.38%
Birmingham Edgbaston Labour 12,517 6th 2,189 10,328 14.39%
Daventry Conservative 18,311 4th 6,659 11,652 14.41%
Manchester Central Labour 15,498 5th 3,220 12,278 14.41%
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Conservative 16,124 4th 5,030 11,094 14.44%
Erewash Labour 12,815 5th 2,492 10,323 14.44%
Ashton-under-Lyne Labour 11,728 6th 1,477 10,251 14.44%
Slough Other 13,870 6th 2,082 11,788 14.50%
Hyndburn Conservative 10,995 5th 1,236 9,759 14.53%
Newcastle-under-Lyme Labour 11,907 5th 2,048 9,859 14.54%
Bournemouth East Conservative 13,716 5th 3,164 10,552 14.58%
Bolsover Labour 12,810 5th 1,536 11,274 14.60%
Bristol South Labour 13,877 5th 2,810 11,067 14.65%
Northampton South Conservative 13,592 4th 3,254 10,338 14.69%
Clapham and Brixton Hill Labour 18,814 3rd 6,554 12,260 14.75%
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Labour 13,543 4th 2,737 10,806 14.75%
Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Labour 14,550 4th 4,402 10,148 14.75%
New Forest East Conservative 17,353 3rd 6,930 10,423 14.76%
Bridgend Labour 12,305 7th 1,503 10,802 14.76%
Sittingbourne and Sheppey Reform 13,018 6th 1,333 11,685 14.78%
Dagenham and Rainham Labour 12,417 5th 1,090 11,327 14.81%
Broadland and Fakenham Conservative 16,892 4th 5,504 11,388 14.82%
Rotherham Reform 14,307 5th 2,989 11,318 14.91%
Wellingborough and Rushden Labour 13,203 5th 1,630 11,573 14.92%
Bolton West Conservative 13,217 5th 2,024 11,193 14.94%
Stoke-on-Trent North Reform 11,400 6th 957 10,443 14.95%
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Labour 12,340 6th 1,104 11,236 14.96%
Faversham and Mid Kent Conservative 15,245 5th 4,119 11,126 14.97%
Bassetlaw Labour 13,786 5th 2,066 11,720 14.99%
Canterbury Labour 14,581 5th 3,909 10,672 15.00%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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